Have you any experience with Polymarket as a prediction market? It’s crypto based and ostensibly excludes Americans (though in practice I’d suspect does a poor job of excluding them), but I’ve found it pretty useful for specific market events. Many markets are deep and liquid.
Thanks for the tip on the abortion ban Metaculus market being up to 25%; that's laughable. I've been on 0.5% there since the market opened in mid-2022 and I just reaffirmed. I'm not sure if people even read resolution criteria over there anymore.
Have you any experience with Polymarket as a prediction market? It’s crypto based and ostensibly excludes Americans (though in practice I’d suspect does a poor job of excluding them), but I’ve found it pretty useful for specific market events. Many markets are deep and liquid.
Thanks for the tip on the abortion ban Metaculus market being up to 25%; that's laughable. I've been on 0.5% there since the market opened in mid-2022 and I just reaffirmed. I'm not sure if people even read resolution criteria over there anymore.
Curious what you make of this:
https://substack.com/@jimacosta/note/c-90695319?r=50f6wq&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
"The markets are currently predicting a 25% chance of a war between major powers with a death count exceeding 10 million before 2050."
Do you think radical school choice in the USA (and it's likely long-term trickle effects on the world) would change how people bet on this?